Datacenter Nuclear — Valar vs. Aalo vs. Oklo

Overview

This deep dive compares three nuclear fission companies as investments in the AI-datacenter power buildout: Valar Atomics, Aalo Atomics, and Oklo. All three sell the same top-level story — small, factory-built reactors delivering firm, behind-the-meter power to AI datacenters — but they differ radically in technology, regulatory strategy, commercial traction, team, and price.

The analysis assumes the valuations specified in the prompt: $2–3B for Valar and Aalo (Valar’s actual April 2026 Series B priced it at $2.0B; Aalo’s last disclosed mark was ~$450M in August 2025, with an undisclosed May 2026 Series B-II, so $2–3B for Aalo is an assumed, not observed, price) and Oklo at its public market valuation of ~$9.0B (NYSE: OKLO, ~$51.80/share as of 2026-07-06).

This is research, not investment advice. All figures are as of early July 2026 and sourced in footnotes on each page.

Pages

1. Market Context — the AI power crunch, hyperscaler nuclear deals, and the 2025–26 regulatory revolution (DOE Reactor Pilot Program, NRC reform) that makes these companies investable at all
2. Oklo — the public benchmark: Aurora sodium fast reactor, 14 GW customer pipeline, $2.5B cash, first power targeted late 2027
3. Valar Atomics — the velocity bet: TRISO-fueled HTGRs, “gigasites,” second startup reactor to go critical, Nvidia demo, $2B Series B
4. Aalo Atomics — the capital-efficiency bet: MARVEL-derived sodium microreactors, LEU fuel supply chain, criticality on July 4, 2026, on ~$136M raised
5. Head-to-Head & Verdict — dimension-by-dimension comparison, valuation math at the assumed marks, scenario analysis, and portfolio conclusions

Key Findings

• The July 4, 2026 criticality race reset the field. Under the DOE Reactor Pilot Program, four startup test reactors achieved criticality by the Executive Order 14301 deadline: Antares (Mark-0, June 4), Valar (Ward 250, June 2026), Deployable Energy (Unity, early July), and Aalo (Aalo-X, July 4). Valar and Aalo are two of only four venture-backed companies ever to take a self-built reactor critical — a milestone Oklo itself has not yet reached.¹
• But criticality ≠ commercial power. These are ~100 kWt-class zero/low-power test units under DOE authorization, not NRC-licensed commercial plants. The bridge from DOE test reactor to selling commercial electrons is an NRC license, and an April 2026 NRC proposed rule to fast-track licensing of DOE/DOD-authorized designs is the single most important regulatory catalyst for both private names.²
• Oklo is the de-risked-but-crowded play. ~$9.0B market cap, ~$2.5B cash, zero revenue, a ~14 GW non-binding customer pipeline (Switch 12 GW, Meta 1.2 GW Ohio, Equinix 500 MW with a $25M prepayment), first Aurora (75 MWe) under construction at INL targeting power in late 2027–early 2028. The stock is down ~72% from its late-2025 high of $193.84, which materially improves the entry versus six months ago.³
• At equal $2–3B pricing, Aalo screens as the better risk-adjusted private bet. It reached criticality on ~$136M of disclosed capital (vs. Valar’s ~$600M), uses commercially available 5% LEU fuel (Urenco contract — the first US advanced-reactor commercial enrichment contract) rather than supply-constrained HALEU or TRISO, has the strongest technical founder (CTO Yasir Arafat, who led INL’s MARVEL program), a named utility PPA negotiation (Idaho Falls Power, 7 reactors), and a 2027 reactor-plus-datacenter demonstration at INL.
• Valar is the highest-variance position. Unmatched narrative velocity (first startup nuclear electricity, Nvidia demo on July 1, 2026, defense-tech investor syndicate, Philippines regulatory arbitrage), the most capital, and the most aggressive regulatory posture (co-plaintiff suing the NRC) — but also the thinnest nuclear engineering bench, credible third-party criticism of its claims, and a commercial unit (~5 MWe HTGR) whose per-unit economics depend entirely on unproven mass manufacturing.
• Fuel is the hidden differentiator. Oklo needs HALEU (first core from recovered EBR-II material; Centrus deliveries only from 2029). Valar needs TRISO compacts (tiny US fabrication base). Aalo runs on 5% LEU UZrH — the only one of the three that can buy fuel from today’s commercial supply chain.

Snapshot