Snapshot
- Ticker: INTC (Nasdaq)
- Bucket: Compute & AI Megacaps
- Q1 2026 position: 653,792 shares, $28,851,841 — 0.58% of 13F (#39, outside the top 20)
- HQ: Santa Clara, California
- What it does: x86 CPUs (client and server) plus Intel Foundry, the only US-owned leading-edge logic foundry.
Business Overview
Intel’s full-year 2025 revenue was 13.7B — above guidance and the fifth straight quarter of beats under CEO Lip-Bu Tan (appointed March 2025). The strategic story is the turnaround: 18A — the most advanced process technology developed and manufactured in the US — ramped to high-volume manufacturing in Arizona and Oregon, first 18A products launched, and 14A development continues contingent on securing committed external demand. The balance sheet was reshaped by extraordinary backers: a $5.0B common stock purchase by NVIDIA and a significant equity stake taken by the US government.
The bear case remains the foundry P&L: Intel Foundry posted a Q1 2026 operating loss of 5.4B revenue (+16% y/y), and nearly all of that revenue is internal — meaningful external leading-edge customers are still mostly prospective.
Why Atreides Owns It
This is a small, low-conviction option, and the fund has traded it like one. Atreides initiated in Q3 2025 at $87.6M (1.71% of 13F) — plausibly around the NVIDIA investment and government-stake news flow — then cut the position 81% in Q4 2025, then added back 35% in Q1 2026. The whipsaw suggests an event/optionality trade rather than a core “watts and wafers” holding: if 18A/14A attract real external customers, Intel is the only domestic answer to the leading-edge wafer constraint Baker talks about; if not, it is a melting-ice-cube x86 franchise funding a money-losing foundry. At 0.58% the position sizes that uncertainty honestly.
Position History
| Quarter | Type | Shares/Notional | Value | % of 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — | not held | — | — |
| Q1 2025 | — | not held | — | — |
| Q2 2025 | — | not held | — | — |
| Q3 2025 | Common | 2,611,037 | $87,600,291 | 1.71% |
| Q4 2025 | Common | 483,930 | $17,857,017 | 0.22% |
| Q1 2026 | Common | 653,792 | $28,851,841 | 0.58% |
A near-2% starter position liquidated almost entirely within one quarter, then partially rebuilt — one of the clearest whipsaws in the book, consistent with a thesis that weakened on contact and is being re-underwritten at smaller size.
Risks
- Foundry cash burn: ~$2.4B quarterly operating losses with no large committed external 18A/14A customer yet disclosed; Intel itself flags possible discontinuation of 14A without sufficient demand.
- Product share loss: client CPU revenue declined (CCG -7% in Q4 2025) and AMD/Arm continue taking server and PC share; Intel has no competitive merchant AI accelerator.
- Government entanglement: the US equity stake aligns funding but adds political constraints on capacity, pricing and potential strategic actions.
- Capital intensity: leading-edge fabs require sustained tens of billions in capex against an earnings base near breakeven.
Sources
- https://www.stocktitan.net/news/INTC/intel-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-financial-pyefzoq9xkrg.html
- https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/01/23/intel-intc-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000050863/000005086326000077/q126earningsrelease.htm
- https://www.techi.com/intel-foundry-18a-cash-burn-2026/