Thesis Themes

Atreides does not file thesis buckets, but Baker narrates his framework constantly in public — and the Q1 2026 book maps onto it cleanly. Percentages below are of the $5.00 B reported 13F value (the QQQ put is 16.2%; the equity buckets sum to the remaining ~84%).

1. AI Connectivity & Optics — the biggest equity bucket (~24%)

Astera Labs ($369M),Ciena($263 M), Lumentum ($188M),Coherent($150 M), Credo ($102M),Semtech($42 M), Nokia ($20M),Rogers($20 M), Veeco ($8 M).

Baker’s “watts and wafers” thesis says the binding constraints on the AI buildout are power and fab capacity — and the highest-torque public expression is the interconnect layer, where scale-up and scale-out networking inside and between AI datacenters grows super-linearly with cluster size. Astera (PCIe/CXL retimers, UALink scale-up fabric) is the fund’s largest equity position and its signature whipsaw trade — share count went 62 k → 1.6 M → 3.4 M across the last two quarters. The Ciena/Lumentum/Coherent trio covers data-center interconnect and the optical supply chain; Credo covers AECs/SerDes inside the rack.

At Sohn New York 2026 Baker argued TSMC’s deliberately slow (~5%/quarter) capacity expansion “is helping the global market avoid an AI bubble” — scarcity at the wafer layer protects pricing power across everything downstream.¹

2. Memory / HBM (~5%)

Micron ($257 M).

Baker has been publicly pounding the memory table since Sohn Montreal 2025: HBM converts memory from a brutal commodity cycle into a structurally tighter, contracted business, and “semicap equipment at ~40× earnings while memory trades at single digits is internally contradictory.”² The position’s history matches the conviction: built, cut 92%, rebuilt 10×, hedged with puts in Q4 2025 (closed in Q1 2026 — the hedge, not the stock).

3. Compute & AI Megacaps (~13%)

NVIDIA ($218M),Amazon($199 M), Alphabet ($160M),CoreWeave($63 M), Nebius ($7M),GlobalFoundries($21 M), Intel ($29M),Synopsys($54 M), Ambiq ($22 M).

The NVDA position is the residue of a much bigger Q4 2025 bet (calls on 3.5 M underlying + 1.9 M common ≈ $1 B exposure, taken around the Meta–NVIDIA Blackwell/Rubin partnership and unwound by Q1 2026). Baker’s line at Sohn 2026: Nvidia trades at “low-to-mid-teens forward on real earnings” versus Cisco’s 100×+ in 2000 — not a bubble, but he sizes it like a trade, not a religion. Amazon is partly an AI position too: he called Trainium “the most undervalued AI chip.”¹ Notably absent: Microsoft (exited twice — Baker has publicly noted Microsoft “cut capex and lost GPU allocation”³), Meta and AMD (both fully exited in Q4 2025).

4. Power & Physical Infrastructure (~3%)

Vistra ($79M),EchoStar($117 M), AeroVironment ($30M),Axon($43 M).

Vistra (new in Q1 2026) is the direct watts play. EchoStar is a spectrum-value position adjacent to the space/communications theme — Baker has been loudly arguing “the most important thing in the next 3–4 years is data centers in space.”⁴ AeroVironment and Axon cover defense-tech autonomy.

5. Game Engines & Consumer Internet (~10%)

Unity ($272Mcommon+$33 M calls), Roblox ($78Mcommon+$57 M calls), Wayfair ($108M),Wix($59 M), Taboola ($3 M).

The barbell’s other end: Unity and Roblox are both held with stacked call options — levered bets that real-time 3D engines are AI-leverage winners (generative content drops creation costs; engagement and ad-monetization compound). Unity is the #3 equity position and the share count has nearly quadrupled since Q4 2024.

6. Software in the AI Crosshairs (~9%)

Twilio ($116M),Zoom($106 M), Palo Alto ($90M),Akamai($78 M), HubSpot ($57M),Rubrik($28 M), JFrog ($26M),Snowflake($22 M).

Baker’s frame: SaaS faces a “life or death decision” about sacrificing margin to ship AI agents, and “anything you can verify, you can automate.”⁴ The portfolio’s software sleeve churns accordingly — GitLab was built to a $250 M position then exited entirely within three quarters (Baker citing AI coding-agent pressure), Atlassian and ServiceTitan cycled out, while names with defensible runtime/data positions (Palo Alto, Akamai, Twilio, Zoom — all new or re-entries in Q1 2026) cycled in.

7. Consumer, Fintech & Housing (~8%)

Dick’s ($90M),Rocket($87 M), Affirm ($55M),RalphLauren($44 M), Wingstop ($42M),ACVAuctions($41 M), Compass ($41M),Ferguson($34 M), Chime ($30M),Mastercard($25 M), Visa ($22M),WarbyParker($14 M), Tesla ($75M),EquipmentShare($4 M), BitGo ($0.2 M).

The Fidelity-OTC heritage sleeve: high-quality consumer franchises plus a growing housing-recovery cluster (Rocket, Compass — both aggressively added in Q1 2026). Tesla is held in size and Baker is governance-active: Atreides publicly voted for Musk’s 2025 performance package, with Baker warning Tesla stock “would decline significantly should Elon leave.”⁵

8. The Hedge (16.2%)

QQQ puts, $808 M notional on 1.4 M underlying.

Structural, not tactical: present in five of the last six quarters, peaking at $2.15 B notional (26% of the book) in Q4 2025 and cut by 60% in Q1 2026. The construction — concentrated innovation longs + index short — lets Atreides stay max-long its names without carrying max net exposure. The new Atreides 150/50 Technology Fund and Low Net Fund (both launched January 2026, per Form D) productize exactly this construction.⁶

Footnotes

Footnotes

1. Hedge Fund Alpha — Sohn New York 2026 fireside; DigiTimes on the TSMC remarks (May 21, 2026); Futu News on Trainium ↩ ↩²

2. Hedge Fund Alpha — Sohn Montreal 2025; Invest Like the Best EP.473 “Watts and Wafers” (May 20, 2026) ↩

3. Global Datacenter Hub — “What does Atreides know about AI?” (June 2, 2026) ↩

4. Invest Like the Best EP.451 (Dec 9, 2025); The Neuron recap ↩ ↩²

5. Gavin Baker on X (Oct 2025); votetesla.com supportive commentary ↩

6. SEC Form D filings: Atreides 150/50 Technology Fund, LP (CIK 0002104580, filed 2026-01-16) and Atreides Low Net Fund, LP (CIK 0002104570, filed 2026-01-16) ↩