Deep Research

Nebius Group (NBIS)

3 min read

Snapshot

  • Ticker: NBIS (Nasdaq)
  • Bucket: Compute & AI Megacaps
  • Q1 2026 position: 63,068 shares, $6.5M, 0.13% of 13F — new position
  • HQ: Amsterdam, Netherlands
  • What it does: European-rooted neocloud (ex-Yandex) selling AI cloud compute, anchored by multi-billion-dollar capacity contracts with Microsoft and Meta.

Business Overview

Nebius emerged from the 2024 split of Yandex’s international assets and reinvented itself as an AI-infrastructure provider. Growth is vertical: Q1 2026 group revenue was 390M and its adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 45% (from 24% in Q4 2025). ARR was 7–9B ARR by end-2026 and $3.0–3.4B of 2026 revenue.

The step-change came from anchor contracts: a ~27B five-year Meta agreement (15B option). Funding it requires extreme capex — 2026 guidance was raised to 4.3B of convertibles, a $2B Nvidia equity investment, and more to come.

Why Atreides Owns It

A toe-hold, not a thesis-defining position. At 0.13% of the 13F, Nebius is best read alongside the rebuilt CoreWeave stake: Atreides expressing the “watts and wafers” scarcity theme through a small basket of neoclouds — businesses that monetize exactly the power and accelerator bottlenecks Baker describes — while keeping sizing consistent with his public skepticism that levered GPU landlords are structural winners. Nebius’s hyperscaler-backed contracts (Microsoft, Meta) and Nvidia equity relationship arguably make it the most creditworthy of the smaller neoclouds. The position is new in Q1 2026; whether it gets the CoreWeave treatment (scaled up and traded around) or stays a tracker is unknowable from one filing.

Position History

QuarterTypeShares/NotionalValue% of 13F
Q4 2024—not held——
Q1 2025—not held——
Q2 2025—not held——
Q3 2025—not held——
Q4 2025—not held——
Q1 2026Common63,068$6,543,9360.13%

First appearance in Q1 2026 at tracker size. Atreides initiated after the Microsoft and Meta contract announcements and the stock’s major 2025 re-rating — this is a late, small entry into a name the fund evidently wants on the sheet, not an early conviction build.

Risks

  • Capex vastly exceeds revenue: 3.0–3.4B of guided revenue; execution and financing risk are extreme.
  • Contract concentration: Microsoft and Meta dominate committed revenue; both are building in-house capacity and custom silicon.
  • Dilution: convertibles, the Nvidia stake, and future raises will keep pressuring the share count.
  • Neocloud commoditization: if accelerator scarcity eases, GPU-hour pricing compresses across the category — the same risk Atreides hedges via small sizing.

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