Overview
[Situational Awareness LP]1 is the AI-focused hedge fund founded in mid-2024 by Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI Superalignment researcher whose June 2024 essay [“Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead”]2 laid out a thesis that the path to AGI/superintelligence is bottlenecked not by ideas but by compute, power, and US fab capacity. The fund is a long/short equity vehicle that expresses that thesis primarily through public equities and listed options on the picks-and-shovels of the AI buildout.
This deep dive reconstructs the fund’s holdings from its SEC 13F-HR filings (the [Q4 2025 filing]3 dated 2026-02-11 is the most recent at the time of writing) and groups them by investment-thesis category. There is a page per category and a page per company.
Key Findings
- Fund entity: Situational Awareness LP, CIK [0002045724]4, based in San Francisco. Co-managed with Carl Shulman.
- Most recent 13F: period of report 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11, $5.52 B reportable value across 29 line items (28 unique issuers).
- Reported AUM is ~5.5 B 13F gross long+option-notional is the leverage signal.
- Five thematic buckets dominate: AI cloud (CoreWeave), data-center operators (the BTC-miner-pivot complex), power & energy infra (Bloom, EQT, Solaris…), US chips (Intel, Tower), and optics/networking (Lumentum, Coherent).
- No model-lab equities and no NVIDIA long. The fund expresses NVIDIA exposure indirectly via CoreWeave and the data-center hosts; in Q3 2025 it actually held puts on NVDA, AVGO, MU, TSM and the SMH ETF, most of which were closed by Q4.
- One disclosed short in Q4 2025: puts on Infosys ADR (INFY) — an “AI displaces IT services” thesis.
- Portfolio velocity is high. The book grew from 6 line items / 5.5 B (Q4 2025) in five quarters, with ~50% of names rotating each quarter.
Q4 2025 Snapshot — Top 10 Holdings
| # | Issuer | Ticker | Type | Value (USD) | % | Bucket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bloom Energy | BE | Common | $875.5 M | 15.9 % | Power |
| 2 | CoreWeave | CRWV | Calls | $774.4 M | 14.0 % | AI cloud |
| 3 | Intel | INTC | Calls | $746.8 M | 13.5 % | Chips |
| 4 | Lumentum | LITE | Common | $478.6 M | 8.7 % | Optics |
| 5 | CoreWeave | CRWV | Common | $436.7 M | 7.9 % | AI cloud |
| 6 | Core Scientific | CORZ | Common | $418.7 M | 7.6 % | Data centers |
| 7 | IREN | IREN | Common | $328.6 M | 6.0 % | Data centers |
| 8 | Applied Digital | APLD | Common | $278.0 M | 5.0 % | Data centers |
| 9 | Sandisk | SNDK | Common | $250.2 M | 4.5 % | Storage |
| 10 | Cipher Mining | CIFR | Common | $154.5 M | 2.8 % | Data centers |
Top 10 = ~86 % of the disclosed book. The full table lives on the Holdings page.
Thesis Buckets (links)
| Bucket | % of 13F | Page |
|---|---|---|
| AI Cloud / GPU-as-a-Service | 22.0 % | AI Cloud |
| Data-Center Operators (HPC pivots) | 25.3 % | Data Centers |
| Power & Energy Infrastructure | 21.9 % | Power & Energy |
| Semiconductors / Chips | 15.1 % | Chips |
| Optics / Networking | 10.3 % | Optics & Networking |
| Storage / Memory | 4.5 % | Storage & Memory |
| Real Estate (paired) | 0.9 % | Real Estate |
| Shorts (Puts) | 0.2 % | Shorts |
Caveats
- 13F-HR filings only show long US equity positions and listed options. Shorts (other than puts), non-US listings, private holdings, and cash are excluded.
- Press references private exposure to model labs (e.g., reportedly Anthropic). Not visible in 13F; confidence is low on specifics.
- Option lines are reported at the value of the underlying shares, not premium paid. Real cash-at-risk on the CRWV (747 M) call lines is much smaller.
- Ticker mapping is inferred from CUSIPs and issuer names — CUSIPs in the SEC XML are the authoritative key.
Footnotes
References
- Fortune — “Inside Leopold Aschenbrenner’s $1.5 B AI hedge fund” (Oct 2025)
- Fortune — coverage of Q4 2025 13F (Mar 2026)
- WhaleWisdom — Situational Awareness LP
- HedgeFollow — Situational Awareness LP
- Q4 2025 13F holdings XML
Contents
| File | Description |
|---|---|
| Fund Thesis | Aschenbrenner’s “Situational Awareness” essay translated into an investment framework |
| Full Holdings | All 29 line items in Q4 2025 plus 5-quarter trajectory |
| AI Cloud | CoreWeave (CRWV common + calls) |
| Data Centers | CORZ, IREN, APLD, CIFR, RIOT, HUT, BTDR, BITF, CLSK, WYFI |
| Power & Energy | BE, EQT, SEI, PSIX, BW, LBRT, PUMP |
| Chips | INTC, TSEM |
| Optics & Networking | LITE, COHR |
| Storage & Memory | SNDK |
| Real Estate | KRC |
| Shorts | INFY puts |