Snapshot
- Ticker: EQT (NYSE)
- Bucket: Power & Energy Infrastructure
- Q4 2025 fund position: **133.0 M common (2.48 M sh) + $37.5 M call notional (0.70 M sh) — 3.09 % of 13F
- HQ: Pittsburgh, PA
- Fiscal year: calendar
Business Overview
EQT is the largest US natural gas producer, with operations concentrated in the Marcellus and Utica shales of Appalachia (Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio). Following the 2024 Equitrans Midstream re-merger, EQT is also a vertically integrated producer-plus-pipeline, owning the gathering and long-haul gas-transmission assets that move its molecules to:
- The eastern seaboard (PJM data-center alley)
- The Gulf Coast LNG corridor
- Increasingly, directly to behind-the-meter data-center power generation in the Mid-Atlantic
Two reportable segments post-merger:
- Production (upstream E&P) — natural gas extraction
- Gathering / Transmission (midstream) — pipelines, MVP (Mountain Valley Pipeline)
The company’s distinctive cost position — break-even gas prices reportedly under $2.50/MMBtu at some assets — makes it the marginal supplier into the new AI-driven gas-power demand curve.
Financial Trajectory
| Metric (USD B) | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 (reported) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~12.1 | ~5.1 | ~4.6 | >8.0 |
| YoY growth | — | −58 % (gas crash) | −10 % (Equitrans H2) | +75 %+ |
| Adj. EBITDA | high | low | recovering | meaningful step-up |
| FCF | strong | weak | brief negative trough | recovery |
Note: EQT’s reported revenue is heavily distorted by mark-to-market on derivatives — reported revenue and “operational revenue” can differ by billions in either direction. Treat the figures above as directional. The underlying business is best tracked through production volumes × realized price − per-unit cost.
Per-Unit Economics (Production Segment)
| Metric | FY24 | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Realized gas price (incl. hedges) | $2.50–3.00/Mcf | Recovering FY25 |
| Total per-unit operating cost | $1.40–1.60/Mcfe | Industry-leading low-cost |
| Implied breakeven (some assets) | <$2.50/MMBtu | Bottom of US cost curve |
EQT operates at the bottom of the US gas cost curve — a structural advantage that means it captures upside when prices rise and survives when prices fall.
Why Natural Gas Is the AI Fuel
Three demand sources converge on Marcellus gas:
- On-site generation for data centers. Bloom Energy SOFCs, GE/Siemens turbines, and reciprocating gen-sets all consume gas as the primary fuel. EQT’s Appalachian molecules sit closest to the Mid-Atlantic data-center alley along the I-95 axis.
- Grid-scale baseload. Coal retirements continue while renewables-plus-storage cannot deliver firm capacity. CCGT (combined-cycle gas turbine) additions are accelerating.
- LNG export demand continues to absorb supply — tightening the domestic market and creating bidirectional pull on Henry Hub.
The fund’s EQT position is the cleanest expression of the fuel-feedstock leg of the power thesis. Bloom Energy needs molecules; EQT supplies them.
Operational KPIs
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Production | ~5.5–6.0 Bcfe/d FY24 → 6+ Bcfe/d post-merger | Largest single producer |
| Reserves | ~25+ Tcfe proved | Decades of inventory |
| Drilling inventory | decades of Marcellus/Utica core acreage |
Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP)
The Equitrans-acquired Mountain Valley Pipeline entered service in 2024 — a major event for the Appalachian gas thesis. MVP opens Southeast US gas markets to Marcellus production, capturing the gas-power demand growth in the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida (where data-center buildouts are accelerating). MVP capacity is ~2 Bcf/d and is fully subscribed.
Balance Sheet
| Item | $B (approx.) |
|---|---|
| Total debt post-Equitrans | ~13–14 |
| Cash | typically <0.5 |
| Net-debt / EBITDA target | <2.0× mid-cycle |
| Net-debt / EBITDA actual | spiked above 3× post-merger; deleveraging |
Capital Allocation
- Buyback program restored after the merger
- Dividend modest yield
- Capex: ~$2.0–2.5 B/year range maintenance + growth
Why It Fits the Thesis
The fund has explicitly avoided the regulated utilities (CEG, VST exited in Q4 2025) in favor of fuel-and-equipment plays. EQT is the upstream-and-midstream half of that bet, paired with Bloom on the equipment side.
The call-options overlay (133 M common) is consistent with a high-conviction view that Mid-Atlantic gas demand from AI data centers re-rates EQT specifically (lowest-cost producer, closest to demand) more than the broader Henry Hub complex.
Position History in the Fund
| Quarter | Position |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | New, common only |
| Q2 2025 | Held |
| Q3 2025 | Maintained |
| Q4 2025 | 2.48 M sh + 700,000 sh call notional |
Risks
- Gas price volatility — bottom of the cost curve helps, but cash flow swings.
- Pipeline regulatory risk in the Northeast for capacity additions.
- AI gas demand must materialize on the assumed timeline to justify supply tightness.
- Hedge book mark-to-market can distort reported earnings violently in either direction.
- Post-merger leverage still elevated; deleveraging is the FY25-FY26 narrative.
Sources
- EQT Corporation 10-K (FY24)
- EQT 10-Q filings
- Equitrans merger filings (8-K)
- Mountain Valley Pipeline service entry announcements (2024)